This discussion was first published as part of the 2016 Red List update. At the time a decision regarding its status was pended, but to enable potential reassessment of the species as part of the 2018 Red List update this post was kept open. A decision has now been made and this topic is now closed.
BirdLife species factsheet for Bernier’s Vanga: http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/species/factsheet/22708054
This species is known from several sites in the lowland rainforest of central-east of Madagascar, and it is scare and patchily distributed throughout its range. It is currently classed as Vulnerable because of suspected continuing declines in both its small population and its small range, owing to the destruction and severe fragmentation of its habitat, mainly as a result of subsistence agriculture (Jenkins 1987).
Recent modelling analyses investigating the possible impact of climate change have suggested that this species’s ecological niche could entirely disappear over the 50 year period between 2000 and 2050 with a reduction in its maximum probability of presence of 76% (Andriamasimanana and Cameron 2013). Assuming a linear decrease, this would equate to a reduction in its ecological niche of c.63% over the next 3 generations for this species (21 years). Thus it would qualify to be uplisted to Endangered under criterion A3bc.
We welcome any comments on this proposed uplisting.
Andriamasimanana, R. H.; Cameron, A. 2013. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar. Ecol. & Evol. 3: 763-769.
Jenkins, M. D. 1987. Madagascar: an environmental profile. International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Cambridge, U.K.